Estimating type in traffic for a domain
In this post, I’ll outline a simple formula you can use to evaluate the type-in traffic potential of a generic keyword .com domain. I thought this might be a useful exercise after reading DomainNameNews.com recent editorial on .CM Typo Traffic and plan to write a follow up post applying this formula to alternate domains like .cm.
Where do type-in visitors come from?
Generic .com keyword domains get type-in traffic from several different sources, namely visitors who…
- type in domains (e.g. cars.com) expecting to find a certain type of site
- use the URL box as a search box (since certain browsers append .com to keywords)
Determining keyword demand by Google monthly searches (MS)
The first thing I look at is the demand for the keyword. I use Google’s keyword tool to determine ‘exact match’ monthly searches (MS). Important: When using this tool, change the match type from ‘broad’ to ‘exact’ or you will receive inflated numbers.
Direct Navigation Percentage (DNP) – estimating how many people use direct navigation (type-ins) vs. search
Next we’ll need to determine the percentage of users who use direct navigation (DNP) instead of search. For today’s example, I am going to use a ‘guessed’ percentage of 2%. If you have a large amount of parked domains in a niche you can determine your industry percentage by dividing your total unique monthly visitors by the total number of Google’s estimated searches for your keywords.
The basic formula
Example: If Keyword Phrase, gets 5,000 Google searches per month and we estimate that 2% of users use direct navigation in this niche, the type-in traffic estimate for KeywordPhrase.com is 100 visitors per month (5,000 x 2%).
Conclusion
Hope this post helps provide a starting point for evaluating keyword domains from a type-in perspective. Future posts will concentrate on other contributing factors to domain value including development potential, SEO advantages and end user resale value.
{ 8 comments… read them below or add one }
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07.23.09 at 12:52 pm
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That’s not helpful because no one knows what the DNP is. It would vary by industry, country, etc.
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07.23.09 at 1:03 pm
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I think this is an oversimplification but nice effort.
I think the biggest factor is not the industry but the number of words or even letters in a domain. One worders tend to get 5-10x the traffic of 2-worders which in turn tend to get 5-10 more traffic than 3-worders with everything else being equal. At least this has been my experience.
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07.23.09 at 2:55 pm
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07.23.09 at 4:07 pm
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Use statbrain.com and alexa.com and use common sense!
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07.23.09 at 8:15 pm
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Good foundation for a series! I hope that you do follow up with this. It took me a long time to figure this some of this stuff out, and it’s great to see somebody else that’s willing to share what they’ve learned on this relatively mysterious topic……
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07.24.09 at 2:02 am
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Exactly the sort of simplified explanation beginners like me are looking for. Thanks!
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10.19.09 at 5:13 am
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Hi! A great Traffic Estimator tool is http://www.estimix.com. It seems to generate very accurate information.
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